Sahel alert warns of 2026-27 harvest shortfalls and pasture loss

Season risks and likely deficits

Prolonged dry spells and significant rainfall variability have marked the 2026-2027 agropastoral campaign, according to an October alert note. At the September 2026 regional consultation of the PREGEC, national and regional experts said a mid-season review points to significant risks of production shortfalls.

Yield deficits are likely in Chad, Mauritania, Niger and Cabo Verde. The alert also cites a March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé projection that nearly 57 million people would face acute food and nutrition insecurity during the 2026 lean season.

Pasture pressure and funding gaps

After two exceptional years, forage resources are deteriorating, notably in eastern Niger (Diffa, Zinder, Agadez) and the Lake Chad Basin, extending through Kanem, Batha, Wadi Fira, Lac and Ennedi in Chad. In Mauritania, vegetation deficits persist in the two Hodh regions.

The note says early and large-scale transhumance is increasing pressure on pastoral resources and the risk of tensions between pastoralist and agropastoral communities. For pastoralist families, losing an animal reduces access to milk, undermines household income and weakens recovery from shocks.

The alert says 2026 response plans remain severely underfunded, with only 15% of needs funded in Niger, 23% in Mali and 20% in Burkina Faso. Action Against Hunger calls on governments, regional institutions and donors to mobilise resources so that early warning triggers early action.